Table 1.

Statistical summary of seasonality and predictability of the 52 admission time series

Health Outcome	R2Autoreg	Fisher Kappa (p-value)1	BKS (p-value)1	# outside 95% CI2
Acute bronchiolitis	0.95	76.56 (<0.01)	0.77 (<0.01)	0
Non-infectious gastroenteritis	0.91	66.28 (<0.01)	0.65 (<0.01)	0
Pneumonia/influenza	0.88	68.64 (<0.01)	0.68 (<0.01)	0
Osteoarthritis	0.86	49.81(<0.01)	0.37 (<0.01)	0
Appendicitis	0.84	52.99 (<0.01)	0.50 (<0.01)	0
Uterine fibroids	0.83	40.05 (<0.01)	0.27 (<0.01)	0
Congestive heart failure	0.82	44.14 (<0.01)	0.42 (<0.01)	0
Previous C-section	0.82	44.52 (<0.01)	0.39 (<0.01)	0
Prostatic hyperplasia	0.80	36.49 (<0.01)	0.31 (<0.01)	0
Singleton birth	0.76	39.20 (<0.01)	0.37 (<0.01)	0
Croup	0.75	47.84 (<0.01)	0.56 (<0.01)	0
Diverticulosis	0.75	29.57 (<0.01)	0.33 (<0.01)	0
Excessive menstruation	0.72	34.02 (<0.01)	0.26 (<0.01)	0
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease	0.71	50.14 (<0.01)	0.50 (<0.01)	0
Urinary tract infection	0.69	52.24 (<0.01)	0.48 (<0.01)	3
Coronary atherosclerosis	0.69	31.60 (<0.01)	0.21 (<0.01)	0
Kidney stones	0.67	40.21 (<0.01)	0.35 (<0.01)	0
Breast cancer	0.67	39.47 (<0.01)	0.24 (<0.01)	0
MyocardiaI infarction	0.67	32.48 (<0.01)	0.30 (<0.01)	1
Gall bladder	0.66	34.69 (<0.01)	0.27 (<0.01)	0
Prostate cancer	0.62	33.42 (<0.01)	0.26 (<0.01)	3
Senile cataract and cataract unspecified	0.60	26.09 (<0.01)	0.27 (<0.01)	0
Acute pancreatitis	0.60	25.30 (<0.01)	0.18 (<0.05)	0
Threatened premature labour	0.59	26.74 (<0.01)	0.19 (<0.01)	1
Gall bladder w/acute cholecystitis	0.57	20.08 (<0.01)	0.15 (NS)	0
Convulsions	0.54	22.46 (<0.01)	0.21 (<0.01)	0
Trochanteric fracture	0.53	22.62 (<0.01)	0.14 (NS)	0
Chronic tonsillitis	0.51	20.82 (<0.01)	0.24 (<0.01)	0
Recurrent manic depression (depressed phase)	0.51	25.43 (<0.01)	0.20 (<0.01)	0
Premature rupture of membrane	0.50	32.01 (<0.01)	0.25 (<0.01)	1
Displacement of inter-lumbar disc	0.50	26.38 (<0.01)	0.18 (<0.01)	1
Dehydration	0.50	55.40 (<0.01)	0.58 (<0.01)	2
Syncope and collapse	0.48	22.57 (<0.01)	0.18 (<0.05)	5
Uncomplicated diabetes	0.48	22.54 (<0.01)	0.23 (<0.01)	0
Lung cancer	0.46	19.41 (<0.01)	0.12 (NS)	0
Depressive disorder	0.45	12.28 (<0.01)	0.14 (NS)	1
Fractured femur	0.44	12.72 (<0.01)	0.10 (NS)	3
Unilateral inguinal hernia	0.43	16.52 (<0.01)	0.18 (<0.01)	0
Abdominal pain	0.43	19.15 (<0.01)	0.26 (<0.01)	0
Transient cerebral ischemia	0.41	18.42 (<0.01)	0.12 (NS)	2
Acute but ill defined cardiovascular disease	0.40	14.69 (<0.01)	0.19 (NS)	0
Angina	0.40	11.72 (<0.01)	0.14 (NS)	0
Unspecified intestinal obstruction	0.38	10.80 (<0.01)	0.15 (<0.05)	0
Other acute ischaemic heart disease	0.36	17.08 (<0.01)	0.15 (<0.05)	1
Recurrent manic depression (manic phase)	0.35	13.77 (<0.01)	0.10 (NS)	4
Fetal distress	0.34	20.24 (<0.01)	0.26 (<0.01)	0
Spontaneous abortion unspecified	0.33	10.95 (<0.01)	0.12 (NS)	0
Stroke	0.31	10.32 (<0.01)	0.14 (NS)	0
Chest pain (nonspecific)	0.29	11.34 (<0.01)	0.14 (NS)	4
Gastrointestinal bleed	0.26	7.84 (<0.05)	0.14 (NS)	0
Other IHD	0.17	6.24 (NS)	0.12 (NS)	0
Infantile cataract	0.11	4.85 (NS)	0.28 (<0.01)	0

¹ NS = not significant (p > 0.05)

² 95% CI = 95% confidence interval