Table 10.

Hypotheses influencing the future railway environment (next 15+ years).

Parameter	Expected Evolution [59]
Organizational model	In Europe, the scenario will not change substantially. Regulation for all member states will come from the EU, but overall responsibility will continue to be held at a national level.
Voice requirements	It may change over time. Some stakeholders have indicated some interest in making use of voice communications which are barely used today (e.g., for communications with train crew and/or passenger announcements independently of the communications between driver and controller). Some of the voice functions of GSM-R, such as the REC, may cease to be critical voice requirements if alternative solutions are available (e.g., if the emergency call and halt to train movement is handled through data/signaling).
ETCS	It currently uses GSM circuit-switched data and it is being evolved to allow the operations over IP packet networks. ETCS operation over GSM-R GPRS is ongoing.
Signaling requirements	It will not change substantially over the next 15+ years.
Communications	The technologies in use will continue to change rapidly with a major evolution in networks, services and devices over 3–5 year cycles.
Applications	The demand for more data applications will increase. Innovative services needed to increase profits.
Radio spectrum	In key bands, spectrum for mobile use will continue to be in high demand, becoming increasingly scarce and costly to acquire.