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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Jun 30.
Published in final edited form as: JAMA. 2016 Jun 21;315(23):2595–2609. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.6828

Figure 2. Predictions From the Natural History Models of Colorectal Cancer for Adenoma Prevalence and Colorectal Cancer Incidence by Age.

Figure 2

The calibrated models were used to project estimates for ages for which calibration data were not available. A, Adenoma prevalence from autopsy studies14–23 and as predicted by the models. Multiple observations at each data point reflect estimates from different studies. The SimCRC and MISCAN models were each simultaneously calibrated to adenoma prevalence estimates from 10 autopsy studies.14–23 The CRC-SPIN model incorporates the distribution of adenoma risk based on a Bayesianmeta-analysis49 of the 10 autopsy studies.14–23 B, Colorectal cancer cases per 100 000 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program (1975–1979)24 and as predicted by the models. The models were calibrated to SEER colorectal cancer incidence rates in 1975–1979 because this period represents colorectal cancer incidence in the United States when there was little or no screening for the disease. (SEER data do not distinguish between screen-detected cancer and clinically detected cancer.)