Table 3.

Distribution of Adenomas by Location, Adenomas by Size, and CRC by Stage and Lifetime Risks of CRC Outcomes From the Models in the Absence of Screening

Outcome	SimCRC	MISCAN	CRC-SPIN	SEER (1975–1979)24
Adenoma location distribution (ages 40–100 y), %a
Rectum	8	21	9
Sigmoid colon	21	36	24
Descending colon	9	6	12
Transverse colon	29	13	24
Ascending colon	23	9	23
Cecum	10	15	8
Adenoma size distribution by age, %a,b
Age 40 y
1–5 mm	56	80	73
6–9 mm	34	12	19
≥10 mm	11	9	8
Age 60 y
1–5 mm	42	61	46
6–9 mm	40	20	24
≥10 mm	18	19	30
Age 80 y
1–5 mm	30	51	31
6–9 mm	44	22	21
≥10 mm	26	27	48
CRC stage distribution (ages 40–100 y), %a
Stage I	18	18	18	18
Stage II	34	34	36	33
Stage III	23	24	27	24
Stage IV	25	25	19	25
Lifetime risks of CRC (ages 40–100 y), outcomes per 1000 40–year-olds
CRC incidence	70	67	72
CRC mortality	28	28	27

Abbreviations: CRC, colorectal cancer; CRC-SPIN, CRC Simulated Population Model for Incidence and Natural History; MISCAN, Microsimulation Screening Analysis; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; SimCRC, Simulation Model of CRC.

^aDistributions may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

^bOf the largest adenoma.