Table 1.

Results: Six scenarios of harm reduction scale up and ART efficacy in preventing HIV transmission

	Scenario	Incidence, PWID	Incidence, PLHIV	Deaths among PLHIV	Total QALYs
Observed scale-up of harm reduction, 50% ART efficacy	S1	2,324	7,987	3,720	52,570,329
Observed scale-up of harm reduction, 0% ART efficacy	S2	2,861	8,718	3,856	52,569,855
No scale-up in harm reduction, 50% ART efficacy	S3	3,811	9,782	3,980	52,561,200
No scale-up in harm reduction, 0% ART efficacy	S4	4,927	11,191	4,181	52,560,486
Observed scale-up of OAT, 0% ART efficacy, no NDP	S5	4,498	10,701	4,084	52,569,012
Observed scale-up of NDP, 0% ART efficacy, no OAT	S6	3,001	8,885	3,929	52,563,104
		Difference in Scenarios	Difference in Scenarios	Difference in Scenarios	Difference in Scenarios
Estimated effect of harm reduction and ART, 50% efficacy	S4 - S1	2,602	3,204	461	9,843
Estimated effect of harm reduction, with no ART efficacy	S4 - S2	2,065	2,473	325	9,369
Estimated effect of ART in the absence of harm reduction, 50% ART efficacy	S4 - S3	1,116	1,409	200	714
Estimated effect of OAT, with no NDP and no ART efficacy	S4 - S5	429	490	96	8,526
Estimated effect of NDP, with no OAT and no ART efficacy	S4 - S6	1,925	2,307	252	2,618

^*Efficacy of ART in the prevention of parenteral HIV transmission only; effects on disease progression and sexual (homo- and heterosexual) transmission are according to published standards; NDP represents needle distribution program.