Table 2.

Impact of the annual number of bOPV SIAs on the persistence of OPV1- and OPV3-related polioviruses after OPV13 cessation in different populations.

Population with properties like	Annual	Time (days since OPV13 cessation) until die-out of OPV-related virus
	# bOPV SIAs	Serotype 1	Serotype 3
Hypothetical (no seasonality), WPV1 R0 =13	0	Pre-cessation cVDPV	Post-cessation cVDPV
	1	190	135
	2	130	105
	3	115	95
	4	105	95
Hypothetical (no seasonality), WPV1 R0 =10	0	Post-cessation cVDPV	120
	1	150	125
	2	115	100
	3	105	95
	4	95	90
Northern India, general	0	Post-cessation cVDPV	150
	1	165	120
	2	125	100
	3	115	90
	4	105	90
Northern India, under-vaccinated	0	Pre-cessation cVDPV	Post-cessation cVDPV
	1	225	150
	2	155	115
	3	130	100
	4	120	95
Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, general	0	255	120
	1	145	115
	2	115	100
	3	105	90
	4	100	85
Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, under-vaccinated	0	Pre-cessation cVDPV	Post-cessation cVDPV
	1	Post-cessation cVDPV	260
	2	Post-cessation cVDPV	185
	3	250	155
	4	210	135
Northern Nigeria, general	0	190	110
	1	145	120
	2	120	105
	3	105	95
	4	100	90
Northern Nigeria, under-vaccinated	0	Pre-cessation cVDPV	190
	1	Post-cessation cVDPV	180
	2	260	155
	3	195	135
	4	170	125