Table 3.
Impact of the annual number of bOPV SIAs on the vulnerability to importations of OPV-related viruses with different degrees of reversion in different populations.
| Population with properties like | Annual # bOPV SIAs | Time (days since OPV13 cessation) until Rn>1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPV1 (stage 0) | OPV3 (stage 0) | OPV1-related stage 10 | OPV3-related stage 10 | VDPV1 (stage 19) | VDPV3 (stage 19) | ||
| Hypothetical (no seasonality), WPV1 R0=13 | 0 | NAa | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1 | 890 | 4710 | 210 | 405 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 955 | 4875 | 280 | 520 | 0 | 125 | |
| 3 | 990 | 4945 | 310 | 565 | 55 | 180 | |
| 4 | 1005 | 4990 | 325 | 595 | 75 | 210 | |
| Hypothetical (no seasonality), WPV1 R0=10 | 0 | NA | >25 yrs. | NA | 235 | NA | 0 |
| 1 | 1475 | >25 yrs. | 365 | 715 | 70 | 165 | |
| 2 | 1570 | >25 yrs. | 455 | 840 | 170 | 295 | |
| 3 | 1610 | >25 yrs. | 495 | 900 | 215 | 355 | |
| 4 | 1635 | >25 yrs. | 515 | 930 | 235 | 385 | |
| Northern India, general | 0 | NA | 2950 | NA | 35 | NA | 0 |
| 1 | 760 | 3315 | 325 | 390 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 785 | 3320 | 340 | 440 | 0 | 40 | |
| 3 | 1070 | 3325 | 345 | 690 | 0 | 315 | |
| 4 | 1070 | 3330 | 350 | 695 | 0 | 320 | |
| Northern India, under-vaccinated | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1 | 735 | 2945 | 305 | 355 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 750 | 2955 | 320 | 385 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 760 | 2960 | 330 | 405 | 0 | 25 | |
| 4 | 765 | 2960 | 335 | 420 | 0 | 40 | |
| Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, general | 0 | 745 | 3685 | 30 | 345 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 1085 | 4050 | 345 | 695 | 15 | 305 | |
| 2 | 1090 | 4055 | 360 | 705 | 55 | 325 | |
| 3 | 1095 | 4060 | 365 | 715 | 290 | 335 | |
| 4 | 1095 | 4060 | 370 | 715 | 295 | 340 | |
| Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, under-vaccinated | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1 | NA | 2955 | NA | 20 | NA | 0 | |
| 2 | NA | 2965 | NA | 330 | NA | 0 | |
| 3 | 740 | 2975 | 300 | 345 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 745 | 3310 | 305 | 350 | 0 | 0 | |
| Northern Nigeria, general | 0 | 1415 | >25 yrs. | 245 | 365 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 1770 | >25 yrs. | 370 | 740 | 220 | 270 | |
| 2 | 1780 | >25 yrs. | 610 | 1015 | 260 | 315 | |
| 3 | 1790 | >25 yrs. | 625 | 1030 | 280 | 350 | |
| 4 | 1795 | >25 yrs. | 635 | 1040 | 290 | 390 | |
| Northern Nigeria, under-vaccinated | 0 | NA | >25 yrs. | NA | 0 | NA | 0 |
| 1 | NA | >25 yrs. | NA | 290 | NA | 0 | |
| 2 | 1400 | >25 yrs. | 255 | 325 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1410 | >25 yrs. | 270 | 370 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1415 | >25 yrs. | 280 | 635 | 0 | 0 | |
a
Not applicable because population immunity to transmission significantly affected by an indigenous cVDPV outbreak