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. 2017 Jul 10;7:5022. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-05185-4

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Scenarios for West Nile virus transmission risk modelled with parameters relevant for Europe. The six plots show the results for low or high fractions of birds in the host population (FB = 0.2 and FB = 0.8, respectively) and one of the three different mosquito population compositions (molestus dominated, equal fractions, or pipiens dominated). Each plot shows the mean R ₀ out of 100,000 model calculations, with error bars showing the 95% range of calculated R ₀ values for three temperature scenarios (T = 18 °C, 23 °C, and 28 °C) and three different mosquito-to-host ratios (C = 10, 100, or 250). The horizontal line indicates an R ₀ value of one. Values of R ₀ above one indicate that there is a chance of West Nile virus establishment.