Figure 4. 2006–2100 DJF extratropical dynamical changes.

Ensemble mean trend of (a–c) zonal wind (U300) and (d–f) meridional wind (V300) at 300 hPa; and (g–i) storm track activity (pp) for (left) the CESM LENS, and the CMIP5 model subset that yields a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 SST versus California precipitation correlation of (centre) at least 0.30 (CMIP5 HIGH-r) and (right) <0.20 (CMIP5 LOW-r). Trend units are m s⁻¹ century⁻¹ for wind variables and hPa² century⁻¹ for pp. Climatological winds are included as thin black contour lines. Contour interval is 5 m s⁻¹ (10 hPa²) for wind (pp), with negative values indicated by dashed lines. Symbols represent trend significance at the 90% (diamond), 95% (X) or 99% (+) confidence level, accounting for autocorrelation.