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. 2017 Jul 6;8:16055. doi: 10.1038/ncomms16055

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Copyright © 2017, The Author(s)

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Trend realization agreement (%) for (a–c) RWS 500; (d–f) divergence (DIV 500); and (g–i) stationary eddy stream function (Ψ 500) at 500 hPa for (left) the CESM LENS, and the CMIP version 5 (CMIP5) model subset that yields a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 SST versus California precipitation correlation of (centre) at least 0.30 (CMIP5 HIGH-r) and (right) <0.20 (CMIP5 LOW-r). Warm (cold) colours show the per cent of realizations that yield an increase (decrease) in each quantity.