Table 2.
Childhood predictors of economic-burden outcomes in a birth cohort. Panel A shows that children who grew up in socioeconomically deprived environments, who experienced child maltreatment, who scored more poorly on childhood IQ tests, and who exhibited less self-control were more likely to belong to more high-cost economic-burden groups in adulthood (ranging from 0–8). PanelB shows that these childhood factors differentiated a group of cohort members who became, as adults, members of the multiple-high-cost segment of their society.
| Panel A: Predicting Number of High-Cost Sectors (range 0–8) |
Univariate Models | Multivariate Models | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRR | IRR 95% CI | IRR | IRR 95% CI | |||||
| Number of High-Cost Sectors * | ||||||||
| Childhood Low SES | 1.33 | (1.25, 1.42) | 1.21 | (1.13, 1.29) | ||||
| Child Maltreatment | 1.23 | (1.17, 1.30) | 1.13 | (1.07, 1.20) | ||||
| Childhood Low IQ | 1.26 | (1.18, 1.34) | 1.05 | (0.98, 1.13) | ||||
| Childhood Low Self-Control | 1.32 | (1.25, 1.40) | 1.18 | (1.11, 1.26) | ||||
|
Panel B: Predicting the Multiple-High-Cost Sector |
RR | RR 95% CI | AUC | AUC 95% CI | RR | RR 95% CI | AUC | AUC 95% CI |
| 0 vs 1 High-Cost Sectors * | 0.67 | (0.62, 0.72) | ||||||
| Childhood Low SES | 1.20 | (1.08, 1.32) | 0.66 | (0.61, 0.71) | 1.17 | (1.06, 1.30) | ||
| Child Maltreatment | 1.12 | (1.02, 1.22) | 0.64 | (0.59, 0.69) | 1.08 | (0.98, 1.18) | ||
| Childhood Low IQ | 1.07 | (0.97, 1.18) | 0.62 | (0.57, 0.67) | 0.97 | (0.88, 1.08) | ||
| Childhood Low Self-Control | 1.16 | (1.06, 1.27) | 0.65 | (0.60, 0.70) | 1.10 | (0.99, 1.21) | ||
| 0 vs 2 High-Cost Sectors * | 0.73 | (0.69, 0.78) | ||||||
| Childhood Low SES | 1.23 | (1.10, 1.37) | 0.69 | (0.64, 0.74) | 1.12 | (1.00, 1.26) | ||
| Child Maltreatment | 1.07 | (0.96, 1.19) | 0.66 | (0.61, 0.71) | 1.00 | (0.89, 1.12) | ||
| Childhood Low IQ | 1.33 | (1.20, 1.48) | 0.71 | (0.67, 0.76) | 1.16 | (1.01, 1.32) | ||
| Childhood Low Self-Control | 1.29 | (1.19, 1.39) | 0.72 | (0.68, 0.77) | 1.19 | (1.07, 1.31) | ||
| 0 vs 3+ High-Cost Sectors = Multiple-High-Cost * | 0.87 | (0.84, 0.90) | ||||||
| Childhood Low SES | 1.49 | (1.35, 1.64) | 0.83 | (0.79, 0.86) | 1.31 | (1.18, 1.45) | ||
| Child Maltreatment | 1.28 | (1.19, 1.37) | 0.8 | (0.76, 0.84) | 1.14 | (1.05, 1.23) | ||
| Childhood Low IQ | 1.35 | (1.24, 1.47) | 0.81 | (0.77, 0.85) | 1.08 | (0.98, 1.20) | ||
| Childhood Low Self-Control | 1.38 | (1.27, 1.49) | 0.84 | (0.80, 0.87) | 1.17 | (1.07, 1.29) | ||
Childhood socioeconomic status (SES), IQ, and self-control are standardized z-scores (M = 0, SD = 1); childhood maltreatment is coded as 0 = none, 1 = probable, 2 = definite maltreatment. All models control for sex. Prediction was the same when men and women were analyzed separately (see Supplemental materials for details).
Time spent outside New Zealand is added as a covariate in analyses that use New Zealand administrative data.
RR = Risk Ratio; IRR = Incidence Rate Ratio; AUC = Area Under the Curve; CI = Confidence Interval