Table 3.
Variation in children’s age-3 brain health predicted which children belonged to high-cost economic-burden groups, 35 years later. Panel A shows that variation in age-3 brain health predicted who was more likely to belong to a high-cost group in adulthood, in each of 8 different sectors. Panel B shows that age-3 brain health predicted the number of high-cost groups (ranging from 0–8) to which each cohort member belonged. Panel C shows that age-3 brain health differentiated cohort members who became, as adults, members of the multiple-high-cost segment of their society.
| Panel A: Predicting High-Cost in Each of 8 Different Sectors |
RR | RR 95% CI | AUC | AUC 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Welfare * | 1.38 | (1.25, 1.53) | 0.73 | (0.69, 0.77) |
| Fatherless Children | 1.22 | (1.07, 1.38) | 0.61 | (0.56, 0.66) |
| Smoking | 1.25 | (1.12, 1.40) | 0.60 | (0.55, 0.64) |
| Excess obese kilograms | 1.15 | (1.02, 1.29) | 0.56 | (0.52, 0.61) |
| Hospital Stays * | 1.18 | (1.05, 1.34) | 0.72 | (0.68, 0.76) |
| Prescription Fills * | 1.23 | (1.10, 1.38) | 0.73 | (0.69, 0.76) |
| Injury Claims * | 1.10 | (0.99, 1.23) | 0.74 | (0.70, 0.77) |
| Crime* | 1.19 | (1.09, 1.29) | 0.72 | (0.68, 0.75) |
|
Panel B: Predicting Number of High-Cost Sectors (range 0–8) |
IRR | IRR 95% CI | ||
| Number of High-Cost Sectors * | 1.20 | (1.13, 1.27) | ||
| Panel C: Predicting the Multiple-High-Cost Sector | RR | RR 95% CI | AUC | AUC 95% CI |
| 0 vs. 1 High-Cost Sectors * | 1.03 | (0.94, 1.14) | 0.62 | (0.57, 0.67) |
| 0 vs. 2 High-Cost Sectors * | 1.17 | (1.07, 1.28) | 0.68 | (0.63, 0.73) |
| 0 vs. 3+ High-Cost Sectors * | 1.26 | (1.17, 1.36) | 0.79 | (0.75, 0.83) |
All models control for sex. Prediction was the same when men and women were analyzed separately (see Supplemental materials for details).
Time spent outside New Zealand is added as a covariate in analyses that use New Zealand administrative data.
RR = Risk Ratio; IRR = Incidence Rate Ratio; AUC = Area Under the Curve; CI = Confidence Interval