Fig 2. Model structure.

Blue and black rectangles represent mosquito and human subpopulations, respectively. Greek letters stand for constant rates, among which the black letters can be estimated from statistical yearbooks, while the blue letters are unknown and need to be estimated in the deterministic model. English letters stand for transition functions, among which the red letters only depend on temperature, while the yellow letters depend on both temperature and water level. If a heavy rainfall occurs when the current water level is close to its maximum value, a fraction of the immature stage mosquitos will be washed out (spillover effect) [22]. Numbers are the IDs for different events. Only events with underlined IDs are modelled stochastically. More information can be found in [7] and S1 File.