Table 1.
Key model parameters.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
| HIV transmission probability per coital act per HIV stage | ||
| Acute | 0.0360 | Published literature [18,19,23] |
| Chronic | 0.0008 | Published literature [18,20] |
| Advanced | 0.0042 | Published literature [18,20] |
| Duration of each HIV stage | ||
| Acute | 49 days | Published literature [18–20] |
| Chronic | 9.0 years | Published literature [20–22] |
| Advanced | 2.0 years | Published literature [18,20] |
| Frequency of coital acts per HIV stage | ||
| Acute | 10.6 per month | Published literature [18] |
| Latent | 11.0 per month | Published literature [18] |
| Late | 10.6 per month | Published literature [18] |
| HSV-2 transmission probability per coital act per HSV-2 stage | ||
| Primary infection | 0.0189 | Published literature [16] |
| Latent infection | 0.0 | Published literature [16] |
| Reactivation | 0.0189 | Published literature [16] |
| HSV-2 shedding frequency | 14% | Published literature [16,25] |
| Duration of each HSV-2 stage | ||
| Primary infection | 20.0 days | Published literature [16] |
| Latent infection | 78.5 days | Published literature [16] |
| Reactivation | 12.8 days | Published literature [16] |
| Frequency of coital acts per HSV-2 stage | ||
| All stages | 11.0 per month | Published literature [18] |
| Marriage rate | 0.12 | Estimated from Kenya's 2008–2009 DHS data using modeling to fit the age-specific prevalence of current marriage [33] |
| Mean duration of marital partnership | 20 years | Representative value informed by Kenya's 2008–2009 DHS data of the distribution of marital partnership duration as well as these data for other Sub-Saharan African countries [33] |
| Mean duration of nonmarital (casual) sexual partnership | 6 months | Representative value and informed by previous work [20,35] |
| Number of premarital sex partners among unmarried individuals over the last year | Estimated from Kenya's 2008–2009 DHS distribution of premarital sex partners [33]. Range is estimated based on DHS distribution of premarital sex partners for 20 Sub-Saharan African countries [34] | |
| Mean | 0.32 and a range of 0.0–1.0 | |
| Variance | 0.0087 and a range of 0.0–2.0 | |
| Number of extramarital sex partners among married individuals over the last year | Estimated from Kenya's 2008–2009 DHS distribution of extramarital sex partners [33]. Range is estimated based on DHS distribution of extramarital sex partners for 20 Sub-Saharan African countries [34] | |
| Mean | 0.0088 and a range of 0.0–0.5 | |
| Variance | 0.0 with a range of 0.0–1.0 | |
DHS, Demographic and Health Survey; HSV-2, herpes simplex virus type 2.