Table 2.
Estimated distribution of new HIV infections by risk (A), and that were transmitted by different behavioral (B) and biological (C) risk factors for HIV infection in Côte d'Ivoire during 1976-2015.
| Time periods | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1976-1985 | 1985-1995 | 1995-2005 | 2005-2015 | |
| A) Who acquired infections | ||||
| Women (FSW excluded) | 36% (28-44%) | 48% (41-54%) | 50% (45-57%) | 49% (44-57%) |
| FSW | 13% (10-16%) | 7% (5-10%) | 4% (3-6%) | 5% (3-7%) |
| Men (CFSW and MSM excluded) | 9% (6-12%) | 17% (12-23%) | 24% (18-31%) | 24% (18-31%) |
| CFSW | 41% (35-50%) | 26% (21-32%) | 17% (12-21%) | 18% (13-22%) |
| MSM | 1% (0-2%) | 2% (1-3%) | 3% (2-5%) | 4% (2-6%) |
| Young women (15-24 years old; no FSW)* | 22% (17-28%) | 28% (22-33%) | 26% (20-31%) | 24% (20-29%) |
| B) Who transmitted infections (by behavioral risk factors; PAF 95%CrI)† | ||||
| High-risk women (FSW excluded) | 10% (6-18%) | 13% (8-22%) | 18% (11-28%) | 18% (11-29%) |
| Sex work | 95% (91-97%) | 60% (50-70%) | 21% (13-28%) | 19% (11-27%) |
| High-risk men (MSM and CFSW excluded) | 2% (1-5%) | 6% (3-14%) | 13% (7-26%) | 15% (8-29%) |
| CFSW to non-FSW | 51% (47-70%) | 61% (53-68%) | 50% (42-59%) | 44% (35-54%) |
| MSM | 1% (0-2%) | 2% (1-3%) | 4% (2-5%) | 4% (2-7%) |
| Young women (15-24 years old; no FSW) | 19% (12-30%) | 23% (17-30%) | 25% (20-32%) | 24% (19-30%) |
| C) Who transmitted infections (by biological risk factors; PAF 95%CrI)† | ||||
| Primary infection phase | 86% (77-93%) | 44% (32-58%) | 25% (17-36%) | 25% (17-36%) |
| Undiagnosed infections | 100% (100-100%) | 100% (100-100%) | 99% (97-99%) | 87% (80-91%) |
| Untreated diagnosed infections§ | 0% (0-0%) | 0% (0-0%) | 4% (2-6%) | 24% (16-34%) |
| Treated infections§ | 0% (0-0%) | 0% (0-0%) | 0% (0-0%) | 6% (3-9%) |
CFSW=clients of female sex workers; FSW=female sex workers; PAF=population attributable fractions; MSM=men who have sex with men.
The following risk factors/behaviors are represented: high-risk women (>1 partner year-1), FSW, high-risk men (>2 partners year-1), CFSW transmitting to non-FSW partners, MSM, and individuals in the primary HIV infection phase.
For the proportions of acquired infections to sum to 100% for each time periods (except for rounding errors), “Young women (15-24 years old, no FSW)” should not be double-counted as they are already included in the “Women (FSW excluded)” categories.
Median population attributable fractions with 95% Credible Intervals.
PAF for untreated diagnosed infections and treated infections prior to 1995 are equal to zero because testing rates, and recruitment into treatment, were assumed to be zero.