Table 3. Predictive accuracy in developing markets.
CSI 300 index | Nifty 50 index | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Average | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Average |
Panel A. MAPE | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.025 | 0.014 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.033 | 0.016 | 0.019 | 0.024 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 0.019 |
WLSTM | 0.025 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.020 | 0.038 | 0.033 | 0.028 | 0.034 | 0.038 | 0.030 | 0.025 | 0.020 | 0.029 | 0.029 |
LSTM | 0.067 | 0.077 | 0.047 | 0.036 | 0.053 | 0.055 | 0.056 | 0.043 | 0.034 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.027 | 0.029 | 0.034 |
RNN | 0.062 | 0.087 | 0.052 | 0.060 | 0.059 | 0.075 | 0.066 | 0.051 | 0.038 | 0.034 | 0.032 | 0.036 | 0.035 | 0.038 |
Panel B. R | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.861 | 0.959 | 0.955 | 0.957 | 0.975 | 0.957 | 0.944 | 0.878 | 0.834 | 0.665 | 0.972 | 0.774 | 0.924 | 0.841 |
WLSTM | 0.841 | 0.801 | 0.919 | 0.864 | 0.977 | 0.803 | 0.868 | 0.803 | 0.533 | 0.312 | 0.958 | 0.722 | 0.844 | 0.695 |
LSTM | 0.440 | 0.273 | 0.629 | 0.742 | 0.962 | 0.656 | 0.617 | 0.596 | 0.601 | 0.027 | 0.904 | 0.515 | 0.772 | 0.569 |
RNN | 0.614 | 0.363 | 0.670 | 0.343 | 0.943 | 0.555 | 0.581 | 0.506 | 0.661 | 0.263 | 0.929 | 0.278 | 0.704 | 0.557 |
Panel C. Theil U | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.017 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.023 | 0.011 | 0.013 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.013 |
WLSTM | 0.018 | 0.019 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.023 | 0.025 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.019 |
LSTM | 0.042 | 0.049 | 0.030 | 0.024 | 0.031 | 0.036 | 0.035 | 0.030 | 0.023 | 0.025 | 0.024 | 0.018 | 0.020 | 0.024 |
RNN | 0.044 | 0.053 | 0.037 | 0.041 | 0.036 | 0.046 | 0.043 | 0.034 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.025 |