Table 5. Predictive accuracy in developed markets.
S&P 500 index | DJIA index | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Average | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Average |
Panel A. MAPE | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.012 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.011 |
WLSTM | 0.015 | 0.020 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.012 | 0.014 |
LSTM | 0.021 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.017 | 0.019 | 0.026 | 0.016 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.022 | 0.020 |
RNN | 0.017 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.018 | 0.038 | 0.040 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.038 | 0.026 | 0.033 |
Panel B. R | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.944 | 0.944 | 0.984 | 0.973 | 0.880 | 0.953 | 0.946 | 0.922 | 0.928 | 0.984 | 0.952 | 0.953 | 0.952 | 0.949 |
WLSTM | 0.917 | 0.886 | 0.971 | 0.957 | 0.772 | 0.860 | 0.894 | 0.915 | 0.871 | 0.963 | 0.911 | 0.817 | 0.927 | 0.901 |
LSTM | 0.873 | 0.905 | 0.968 | 0.953 | 0.795 | 0.755 | 0.875 | 0.860 | 0.791 | 0.948 | 0.751 | 0.719 | 0.786 | 0.809 |
RNN | 0.899 | 0.909 | 0.966 | 0.867 | 0.618 | 0.822 | 0.847 | 0.684 | 0.579 | 0.871 | 0.669 | 0.256 | 0.699 | 0.627 |
Panel C. Theil U | ||||||||||||||
WSAEs-LSTM | 0.009 | 0.010 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.007 |
WLSTM | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.012 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.008 | 0.009 |
LSTM | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.013 | 0.016 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 0.013 |
RNN | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 0.025 | 0.017 | 0.021 |