Figure 3. Wetland vegetation changes due to constant sea-level rise and constant soil surface elevation change.

(a,b) 30–40% of vegetated area loss is predicted after 60 years in the bathtub model but considerably sooner (20 years) in the attenuated case. During this initial phase losses are partially compensated by colonization of higher buffer zones. (c,d) 50–55% of vegetation loss occurs after 80 and 40 years according to the bathtub and hydrodynamic model, respectively. Faster losses in this phase are associated with the disappearance of buffer zones. (e,f) 80–85% of vegetation loss at 120 years (bathtub model) and 80 years (hydrodynamic model) in this last phase indicates a slower rate of inundation related to the steeper relief of the higher areas of the wetland in the periphery. For complete results see Supplementary Figs 2 and 3.