Figure 4. Wet land vegetation changes due to variable sea-level rise and variable soil surface elevation change with low suspended sediment.

(a,b) 25–45% of vegetated area loss is predicted after 100 years in the bathtub model but considerably sooner (20 years) in the attenuated case. During this initial phase changes are slow due to low sea-level rise rates and also because losses are partially compensated by colonization of higher buffer zones. (c,d) After the initial period of slow change due to low rates of sea-level rise, wetland loss trajectory is similar to the results using constant rates of sea-level rise and a constant rate of surface elevation gain achieving 75–80% of vegetation loss at 120 years (bathtub model) and 80 years (hydrodynamic model). For complete results see Supplementary Figs 4 and 5.