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. 2017 Jul 14;17:103. doi: 10.1186/s12874-017-0375-8

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© The Author(s). 2017

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 1 — a-b: Risk distributions in two simulated validation sets. 50% of individuals received an effective treatment (relative odds reduction on treatment: 0.5), (see Table 2 scenarios 2 and 1, respectively, for details). a the model was validated on the combined treatment and control group of a randomised trial. b the model was validated using data from a non-randomised setting where the probability of receiving treatment depended on an individual’s (untreated) outcome risk. Black lines represent the observed risks in the validation set, after treatment. Grey lines represent the risks of the same individuals had they (hypothetically) remained untreated