Table 10:

Event Rates, Treatment Effects, and Severity: Ischemic Stroke, Systemic Embolism, and Transient Ischemic Attack

Baseline Risk of Ischemic Stroke, Systemic Embolism, or Transient Ischemic Attack
CHA2DS2VASc Score	Annual Probability of Event	Standard Error	Source
0	0.003	0.0006	Friberg et al, 201250
1	0.009	0.0009	Friberg et al, 201250
2	0.029	0.0013	Friberg et al, 201250
3	0.046	0.0013	Friberg et al, 201250
4	0.067	0.0015	Friberg et al, 201250
5	0.100	0.0021	Friberg et al, 201250
6	0.136	0.0030	Friberg et al, 201250
7	0.157	0.0048	Friberg et al, 201250
8	0.152	0.0080	Friberg et al, 201250
9	0.174	0.0208	Friberg et al, 201250
Treatment Effects
Intervention:Comparator	Odds Ratio	Standard Error	Source
Warfarin:aspirin	0.53	0.1291	Aguilar et al, 200753
LAAC device:warfarin	1.56	0.3569	PREVAIL, Holmes et al, 201420; PROTECT AF, Reddy et al, 201440
Apixaban:warfarin	0.92	0.1053	ARISTOTLE, Granger et al, 201116
Dabigatran 110 mg:warfarin	1.09	0.1126	RE-LY, Connolly et al, 200915
Dabigatran 150 mg:warfarin	0.78	0.1220	RE-LY, Connolly et al, 200915
Rivaroxaban:warfarin	0.84	0.1107	ROCKET AF, Patel et al, 201117
Severity of Ischemic Stroke, Systemic Embolism, or Transient Ischemic Attack
Event and Severity	Proportion	Standard Error	Source
Systemic embolism	0.149	0.0107	Connolly et al, 200915; FDA, 201555; Granger et al, 201116; Patel et al, 201117
Transient ischemic attack	0.188	0.0375	FDA, 201555
Ischemic stroke	0.663	–	Calculation
Proportion of systemic embolisms that are:
Fatal	0.247	0.0291	Bekwelem et al, 201556
Proportion of ischemic strokes that are:
Fatal	0.144	0.0287	Goeree et al, 200554
Major	0.016	0.0032	Goeree et al, 200554
Moderate	0.729	0.1457	Goeree et al, 200554
Minor	0.111	0.0223	Goeree et al, 200554

Abbreviations: CHADS₂DS₂VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years (2 points), Diabetes mellitus, Stroke or transient ischemic attack symptoms previously (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74 years, Sex category; LAAC device, left atrial appendage closure device with delivery system.