Table 2.
Ratios between inter-farm AI infectious contact rates during and outside the Lunar New Year period selected through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in the three climatic regions of Vietnam
| Model parameters | Ratios of infectious contact rates (β C/β 0*): median and 95% credible interval | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duration of infectious period (days)** | Duration of removed period (days)*** | North | Centre | South |
| 4 | 15 | 2.9 (2.2–3.9) | 3.4 (2.5–4.2) | 3.5 (2.7–4.2) |
| 45 | 2.5 (1.8–3.4) | 3.0 (2.1–3.7) | 3.1 (2.3–3.7) | |
| 13 | 15 | 10.6 (5.8–20.1) | 16.6 (9.7–23.0) | 17.6 (11.2–23.3) |
| 45 | 9.4 (5.3–16.5) | 14.6 (8.6–20.0) | 15.5 (9.8–20.0) | |
*β C: Infectious contact rate during the at-risk period (Lunar New Year). β 0: Infectious contact rate outside the at-risk period.
**Period from infection of farm birds to farm clearing.
***Period from farm clearing to repopulation.