Table 1. For three colorectal cancer screening programs (age, genetics and integrated) conducted in a theoretical population resembling the size and age distribution of Australia in 2011 (N=22 340 042): the number of people eligible for biennial screening, number of people invited to screen each year, number of people expected to participate, number of expected colorectal cancer deaths and years of life lost to colorectal cancer (YLL) if there was no screening, the number of colorectal cancer deaths and YLL prevented by biennial screening, and the number of false positive screening tests and serious consequences of false positive screening tests in a single year assuming age-specific participation rates, and assuming all eligible persons participate in screening (100% participation).
| Age-based program (50–74 years) | Genetics-based program; combined age and SNPs 5-year colorectal cancer risk exceeds 0.33% (differencea) | Integrated program; combined age and SNPs risk exceeds 0.33% or age 50–74 years (differencea) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of people | |||
| Eligible for biennial screening | 5 737 987 | 5 412 206 (−325 781) | 6 122 559 (+384 572) |
| Invited to screen each year | 2 868 994 | 2 706 103 (−162 891) | 3 061 280 (+192 286) |
| Expected to participateb each year | 1 047 681 | 996 133 (−51 548) | 1 100 367 (+52 686) |
| Age range (years)c | 50, 74 | 32, 74 | 32, 74 |
| Expected deaths due to colorectal cancer | |||
| If none underwent screeningc | 1659 | 1614 (−45) | 1696 (+37) |
| Per 100 000 people if none underwent screeningc | 28.9 | 29.8 (+0.9) | 27.7 (−1.2) |
| Expected YLL | |||
| If none underwent screeningc | 34 714 | 34 048 (−667) | 36 086 (1372) |
| Per 100 000 people if none underwent screeningc | 605 | 629.1 (+24.1) | 589.4 (−15.6) |
| Colorectal cancer deaths prevented by screening | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 267 | 261 (−6) | 272 (+5) |
| 100% participation | 730 | 710 (−20) | 746 (+16) |
| Colorectal cancer deaths prevented by screening per 100 000 eligible (invited) persons | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 9.2 | 9.6 (+0.4) | 9.0 (−0.2) |
| 100% participation | 25.4 | 26.2 (+0.8) | 24.4 (−1.0) |
| YLL prevented by screening | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 5578 | 5515 (−63) | 5800 (+222) |
| 100% participation | 15 274 | 14 981 (−293) | 15 878 (+604) |
| YLL prevented by screening per 100 000 eligible (invited) persons | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 194.0 | 203.8 (+9.8) | 189.4 (−4.6) |
| 100% participation | 532.4 | 553.6 (+21.2) | 518.6 (−13.8) |
| NNiS to prevent one colorectal cancer death | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 10 763 | 10 354 (−409) | 11 229 (+466) |
| 100% participation | 3931 | 3811 (−120) | 4101 (+170) |
| NNiS to prevent one YLL | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 515 | 490 (−25) | 528 (+13) |
| 100% participation | 188 | 181 (−7) | 193 (+5) |
| NNS to prevent one colorectal cancer death | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 3931 | 3811 (−120) | 4036 (+105) |
| 100% participation | 1436 | 1403 (−33) | 1474 (+38) |
| NNS to prevent one YLL | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 188 | 181 (−7) | 190 (+2) |
| 100% participation | 69 | 67 (−2) | 70 (+1) |
| Expected false-positive screening tests each yeard | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 42 778 | 42 019 (−759) | 43 507 (+729) |
| 100% participation | 109 918 | 107 764 (−2154) | 112 580 (+2662) |
| Expected serious complications due to false-positive screening tests each yeard,e | |||
| Age-specific participationb | 697 | 685 (−12) | 709 (+12) |
| 100% participation | 1792 | 1757 (−35) | 1835 (+43) |
Abbreviations: NNiS, number needed to invite to screen; NNS, number needed to participate in screening.
a
Compared with the age-based screening program.
b
Age-specific participation rates, ≤54 years =0.274, 55–59 years =0.359, 60–64 years =0.427, ≥65 years =0.406.20
c
In the biennially eligible population in 1 year.
d
Assuming positive predictive value of immunochemical fecal occult blood test (iFOBT) =3.6%.16
e
Assuming 100% colonoscopy follow-up rate, and 1.6% of colonoscopy procedures result in an unplanned hospital visit due to serious complications (including hemorrhage, abdominal pain and perforation).17