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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Apr 1.
Published in final edited form as: AIDS. 2017 Apr;31(Suppl 1):S13–S22. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001306

Figure 2. Probability of HIV transmission by PMTCT regimen.

Figure 2

Peripartum transmission is the probabilty of transmitting between a mother and child during the pregnancy and delivery. Postpartum transmission is a monthly probability that is multiplied by the expected duration of breastfeeding which varies for women wihtin the PMTCT programme and women not in the programme who are not likely to know their HIV status. The probability of transmission to the infant among women who are infected while breastfeeeding is a one-time risk and is 27% (compared to 28% in the 2015 model). The sources for the 2015 model assumptions are Rollins et al 2012, except for ART started during pregnancy which was updated after the Rollins et al paper. The 2016 model assumptions are previously published in an unpublished report by Lynne Mofenson.