Table 1.
Time-Series Analysis of National Monthly Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) Applications
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final UI exhaustions (index: multiple of 2005–7 average) | −.047 (.046) | −.040 (.024) | .013 (.008) | .011 (.008) | .013 (.009) | |
| Exhaustions index (average, previous 3 months) | −.028 (.020) | |||||
| Exhaustions index (average, next 3 months) | .024 (.014) | |||||
| 𝟙(No exhaustions this month) | −.024 (.006) | |||||
| Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) | .039 (.003) | .032 (.006) | .027 (.006) | .033 (.005) | ||
| ln(initial UI claims) | −.040 (.019) | −.025 (.019) | −.043 (.018) | |||
| 𝟙(June, July, August 2010) | .037 (.009) | .034 (.008) | .033 (.009) | |||
| Post-ARRA | .054 (.019) | .061 (.020) | .047 (.018) | |||
| Quadratic time trend | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| N | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 95 | 101 |
Note.—Dependent variable is ln(SSDI applications), excluding concurrent SSDI/SSI applications, measured at the monthly level and seasonally adjusted. Sample in all columns is a national time series spanning August 2004 to December 2012 (November 2004 to September 2012 in col. 5). UI = Unemployment Insurance; ARRA=American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; SSI=Supplemental Security Income. Newey-West standard errors, allowing for autocorrelations at up to four lags, are in parentheses.