Table 2.
Increase in Mean 10‐Year Predicted ASCVD Risk Between Visits 1 and 3, Overall and Attributable to Aging and Changes in Modifiable Risk Factors
| Risk Factor | Mean 10‐Year Predicted ASCVD Risk (95% CI) | Increase in 10‐Year ASCVD Risk (Visit 3—Visit 1) Because of Aging and Changes in Each Risk Factor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increasea (95% CI) | Percentage of Overall Increase (95% CI) | Ratio as Compared to Aging (95% CI) | ||
| Observed risk at visit 1 | 2.41 (2.28, 2.53) | … | … | … |
| Observed risk at visit 3 | 5.87 (5.57, 6.18) | … | … | … |
| Overall increase (visit 3 minus visit 1) | 3.46 (3.25, 3.69) | … | 100 (reference) | … |
| Risk factor at visit 1 used for prediction | ||||
| Age | 3.45 (3.24, 3.65) | 2.42 (2.32, 2.54) | 69.8 (67.5, 72.1) | 100 (reference) |
| SBP or initiation of antihypertensive medication | 4.65 (4.41, 4.89) | 1.22 (1.09, 1.37) | 35.3 (32.4, 38.0) | 50.6 (45.3, 55.7) |
| Smoking | 5.88 (5.58, 6.17) | −0.01 (−0.07, 0.06) | b | b |
| Diabetes mellitus | 5.27 (5.02, 5.53) | 0.60 (0.48, 0.74) | 17.3 (14.2, 20.5) | 24.8 (20.1, 29.8) |
| Total and HDL cholesterol | 6.10 (5.79, 6.42) | −0.23 (−0.29, −0.16) | b | b |
Bootstrapping was used to quantify the 95% CIs of the 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk estimates. The percentages in the column labeled “Percentage of overall increase (95% CI)” do not add up to 100% because they are not mutually exclusive. ASCVD indicates atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; HDL, high‐density lipoprotein; SBP, systolic blood pressure.
The overall increase in 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk attributable to aging and the change in each risk factor, separately, calculated as the 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 minus the recalculated 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3, assuming the risk factor in the row had not changed from visit 1. The equations used to calculate percentage of overall increase and the ratio as compared to aging are shown in Figure S1.
Smoking and cholesterol did not contribute to the increase in mean 10‐year predicted ASCVD risk increase. See column labeled “Increase* (95% CI)”.