Table 2.
Observed and Predicted Incidence Rates of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Calibration and Discrimination of the Pooled Cohort Risk Equations by Social Deprivation Status
| Events/Person‐Years | Events in 5 Years | 5‐Year Incidence Ratea | Calibration | Discrimination | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observedb | Predictedc | Observed (95% CI)b | Predictedc | Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 | P Value | C‐Index (95% CI) | ||
| Cumulative number of indicators of showing deprivation | ||||||||
| 0 (Less deprivation) | 223/33 266 | 154 | 198 | 6.23 (5.31–7.31) | 8.02 | 12.43 | 0.01 | 0.718 (0.686–0.751) |
| 1 | 117/16 259 | 82 | 100 | 6.61 (5.29–8.24) | 8.05 | 6.60 | 0.09 | 0.734 (0.687–0.781) |
| 2 or 3 (More deprivation)d | 117/10 122d | 93d | 80d | 11.40 (9.23–14.05)d | 9.83d | 5.77d | 0.12d | 0.695 (0.645–0.746)d |
| Indicators of social deprivation status | ||||||||
| Annual household income, US$ | ||||||||
| ≥$50 000 | 140/25 454 | 98 | 131 | 5.15 (4.21–6.29) | 6.91 | 10.91 | 0.01 | 0.724 (0.683–0.765) |
| $25 000 to <$50 000 | 166/20 791 | 117 | 143 | 7.48 (6.22–9.00) | 9.16 | 8.09 | 0.04 | 0.711 (0.671–0.751) |
| <$25 000d | 151/13 403d | 116d | 105d | 10.73 (8.88–12.95)d | 9.72d | 4.74d | 0.19d | 0.703 (0.660–0.746)d |
| Education | ||||||||
| College graduate and above | 164/25 627 | 113 | 145 | 6.03 (5.01–7.26) | 7.74 | 9.01 | 0.03 | 0.724 (0.685–0.763) |
| High school/some college | 233/29 844 | 166 | 193 | 7.18 (6.15–8.39) | 8.33 | 8.62 | 0.03 | 0.704 (0.671–0.737) |
| Less than high schoold | 60/4 178d | 50d | 41d | 14.56 (10.92–19.35)d | 11.87d | 8.92d | 0.03d | 0.742 (0.676–0.808)d |
| Relationship status | ||||||||
| Living with a partner | 292/39 086 | 203 | 247 | 6.92 (6.02–7.96) | 8.42 | 11.45 | 0.01 | 0.720 (0.692–0.749) |
| Living without a partnerd | 165/20 562d | 124d | 131d | 7.79 (6.50–9.32)d | 8.23d | 7.49d | 0.06d | 0.722 (0.680–0.763)d |
Data used to calculate the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 are shown in Tables S2 through S5. The median and maximum follow‐up among participants included in the present analysis were 7.0 and 9.9 years, respectively.
a
Incidence rates are expressed per 1000 person‐years.
b
Adjusted using the Kaplan–Meier method.
c
Determined using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort risk equations.
d
Categories used to define deprivation within each indicator of social deprivation status.