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. 2017 May 2;6(5):e005231. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.116.005231

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© 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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Calibration per individual study. Observed (open bar) vs expected (solid bar) number of heart failure events across deciles of 5‐year risk for the Health ABC (Health Aging and Body Composition), PREDICTOR (Valutazione della PREvalenza di DIsfunzione Cardiaca asinTOmatica e di scompenso cardiac), and PROSPER (Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) studies, which were used to develop the heart failure risk function. ASCOT (Anglo‐Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial) was used as an external validation cohort.