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. 2017 Jul 24;8:107. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Improved risk estimates of the chance of unprecedented rainfall. The chance of an event exceeding the observed maximum monthly rainfall total in south east England in winter (October to March) of any given year from two methods, ranking (red) and extreme value theory (blue) on the model simulations. The uncertainties indicate the 95% range