Fig. 5.

The chance of specified absolute rainfall totals. The chance, in south east England, of at least one month in a given winter (October–March) exceeding absolute rainfall totals (in mm) using extreme value theory. The 95% uncertainty cone of the model using the full model data is shown in red. Limiting the sample length to 35 years, as is available from observations, is shown in grey. The limits of the uncertainty range from the observations alone are shown in blue