Table 3.
Average prediction accuracy of AR models for PH of 30-minutes (RMSE – Root Mean Squared Error; MAE – Mean Absolute Error).
| Cases | LAR | AAR | NNAR | SETAR | LSTAR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | |
| Low to moderate risk (1) | ||||||||||
| 5.93 (1.93) | 5.02 (1.65) | 5.31 (1.96) | 5.56 (1.54) | 5.31 (2.47) | 5.03 (2.21) | 5.81 (1.44) | 5.73 (1.52) | 4.83 (2.28) | 4.32 (2.51) | |
| High risk of hypoglycemia (1) | ||||||||||
| 15.12 (1.41) | 14.72 (2.02) | 12.12 (1.43) | 11.72 (2.12) | 10.18 (1.46) | 9.08 (1.58) | 6.49 (0.77) | 5.81 (1.31) | 5.31 (1.96) | 4.56 (1.54) | |
| 16.65 (2.33) | 14.24 (2.43) | 13.65 (2.33) | 13.24 (2.41) | 10.06 (1.63) | 8.25 (0.68) | 7.04 (1.64) | 6.93 (1.27) | 5.63 (1.06) | 4.98 (0.94) | |
| 17.64 (1.27) | 15.16 (0.82) | 14.64 (1.27) | 13.66 (1.62) | 10.68 (5.60) | 10.01 (4.84) | 9.54 (3.19) | 8.38 (2.33) | 6.07 (2.61) | 5.75 (1.97) | |
| High risk of hyperglycemia (1) | ||||||||||
| 18.07 (3.43) | 17.88 (3.21) | 12.42 (4.18) | 10.28 (3.81) | 10.42 (3.18) | 10.28 (2.81) | 7.64 (0.93) | 6.67 (0.93) | 5.71 (0.74) | 4.93 (0.93) | |
| 18.44 (4.19) | 18.27 (3.23) | 13.62 (4.37) | 11.746 (3.41) | 11.62 (3.37) | 11.46 (3.41) | 8.83 (2.22) | 7.67 (1.68) | 5.74 (2.03) | 5.05 (1.94) | |
| 17.44 (4.13) | 17.11 (1.76) | 13.62 (4.37) | 10.81 (3.41) | 11.62 (4.31) | 10.81 (3.28) | 9.64 (3.22) | 8.53 (2.15) | 6.51 (3.28) | 5.81 (2.51) | |
(1)Values are presented as mean (standard deviation).