FIG 2.

Simulation mean effects of peacekeeper prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis. Blue indicates results favoring prophylaxis, and red indicates results favoring no prophylaxis. Results are based on 10,000 random parameter sets assuming 500 peacekeepers in a host population of 1 million susceptible individuals. For each parameter set, results were obtained by subtracting the mean value from repeated stochastic runs assuming no prophylaxis from the mean value given prophylaxis. Subplot interpretations are as follows. (A) Prophylaxis may increase or decrease the overall expected number of DR cholera infections; these values cluster around 0 and never reach ≥2,000 (≥0.2% of the population). (B) Prophylaxis always decreases the probability of cholera importation. (C) Prophylaxis always increases the expected number of DR cholera infections conditional on cholera importation. (D) Prophylaxis is likely to prevent ≥10 DS cholera infections per excess DR cholera infection.