Table 4.
Optimal prediction model and its predictive performance of death within 1 year
| Predictors in model | B | AUC | True AUC | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | −3.901 | 0.870 | 0.818 | 0.813–0.824 |
| Hypoxemia or hypercapnia | / | |||
| NIV | / | |||
| Professional home care | / | |||
| Negative answer SQ | 0.959 | |||
| Comorbidity | 1.479 | |||
| CCQ total, day version >3 | 0.257 | |||
| MRC dyspnea =5 | 1.475 | |||
| FEV1 <30% of predicted | 0.565 | |||
| BMI <21 or weight loss | 1.005 | |||
| Prev hosp AECOPD | 0.102 | |||
| Age >70 years | / |
Notes: Study population (N=155). B, weight in the model./, not incorporated in the optimal prediction model.
Abbreviations: AECOPD, acute exacerbation COPD; AUC, area under the curve; BMI, body mass index; CCQ, Clinical COPD Questionnaire; CI, confidence interval; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; MRC dyspnea, Medical Research Council dyspnea questionnaire; NIV, noninvasive ventilation; prev hosp, previous hospitalization; SQ, surprise question.