Table 5.

Observed vs. predicted risk for program and long-term attrition

Points	Risk category	Derivation set			Validation set
		N (%)	Observed risk	Estimated risk	N (%)	Observed risk	Estimated risk
Program attrition
0–7	Low	494 (44.4)	0.168	0.165	267 (47.8)	0.172	0.168
8–10	Intermediate	390 (35.0)	0.290	0.300	186 (33.3)	0.323	0.298
11+	High	229 (20.6)	0.450	0.440	105 (18.8)	0.495	0.443
Long-term attrition
0–5	Low	567 (49.0)	0.302	0.308	276 (48.8)	0.304	0.312
6–7	Intermediate	343 (29.6)	0.440	0.439	166 (29.4)	0.452	0.438
8+	High	248 (21.4)	0.581	0.566	123 (21.8)	0.561	0.558