Table 4.

Comparative epidemiologic outcomes with the monovalent vaccine at higher or lower coverage levels compared to the baseline coverage level (Table 1).

	Cross immunity 90%		Cross immunity 70%		Cross immunity 50%
Vaccine coverage relative to baseline	% epidemics with lower cumulative incidence than baseline	Average epidemic size compared to baseline (95% CI)	% epidemics with lower cumulative incidence than baseline	average epidemic size compared to baseline (95% CI)	% epidemics with lower cumulative incidence than baseline	average epidemic size compared to baseline (95% CI)
Uniform coverage	100%	−37.2% (−99.8%, −0.8%)	100%	−38.4% (−99.8%, −9.1%)	100%	−40.3% (−99.8%, −9.5%)
50% increase	100%	−8.9% (−47.1%, −1.7%)	100%	−10.3% (−47.7%, 2.5%)	100%	−11.8% (−49.4%, −2.8%)
25% increase	99.9%	−4.4% (−27.1%, −0.8%)	100%	−5.4% (−26.3%, −1.3%)	100%	−6.4% (−27.8%, −1.4%)
10% increase	99.1%	−1.8% (−11.9%, −0.3%)	100%	−2.2% (−11.4%, −0.5%)	100%	−2.8% (−11.4%, −0.6%)
10% reduction	1.3%	+1.8% (0.3%, 12.2%)	0.1%	+2.4% (0.5%, 11.6%)	0%	+3.4% (0.6%, 11.6%)
25% reduction	1.0%	+4.6% (0.7%, 31.9%)	0%	+6.6% (1.4%, 29.9%)	0%	+9.7% (1.7%, 30%)
40% reduction	0.9%	+7.7% (1.2%, 52.3%)	0%	+11.5% (2.3%, 49.1%)	0%	+17.7% (2.9%, 49.5%)