Table 2.

Key variables identified in modelled sensitivity analysis

Model variable	Source of variable	Level of uncertainty in data	Impact of uncertainty on model	Overall rating of importance
Levels of ADCrecurrence after surgery for those diagnosed through surveillance vs those presenting symptomatically	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	High	Very high	Very important
Time ADC takes to become symptomatic	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	High	Very high	Very important
Health state utility—Barrett's oesophagus	Value of health panel	Moderate	Very high	Very important
% of ADC diagnosed through surveillance that are treatable	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	Moderate	High	Important
% of ADC diagnosed due to symptoms that are treatable	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	Moderate	High	Important
Utility value—well after surgery	Value of health panel	Moderate	High	Important
Progression rate LGD to HGD	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	High	Moderate	Moderately important
Progression rate HGD to ADC	Poor published evidence plus expert opinion	High	Moderate	Moderately important

ADC, adenocarcinoma; HGD, high grade dysplasia; LGD, low grade dysplasia.