Table 3.
Individual study diagnostic test results
| First author | SQ time frame | Total (n) | SQ responses | Diagnostic test results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SQ | n | Died (n) | Survived (n) | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | c-statistic | |||
| % (95% CI) | |||||||||||
| SQ up to 12 months | |||||||||||
| Amro [18] | 12 months | 201 | No | 50 | 22 | 28 | 56.4 | 82.7 | 44 | 88.7 | 0.696 |
| Yes | 151 | 17 | 134 | (39.6–72.2) | (76–88.2) | (30–58.7) | (82.6–93.3) | (0.612–0.78) | |||
| Carmen [19] | 12 months | 49 | No | 20 | 7 | 13 | 77.8 | 67.5 | 35 | 93.1 | 0.726 |
| Yes | 29 | 2 | 27 | (40–97.2) | (50.9–81.4) | (15.4–59.2) | (77.2–99.2) | (0.565–0.888) | |||
| Feyi [21] | 6–12 months | 178 | No | 58 | 37 | 21 | 72.5 | 83.5 | 63.8 | 88.3 | 0.78 |
| Yes | 120 | 14 | 106 | (58.3–84.1) | (75.8–89.5) | (50.1–76) | (81.2–93.5) | (0.71–0.85) | |||
| Halbe [22] | 12 months | 651 | No | 139 | 71 | 68 | 65.7 | 87.5 | 51.1 | 92.8 | 0.766 |
| Yes | 512 | 37 | 475 | (56–74.6) | (84.4–90.1) | (42.5–59.6) | (90.2–94.9) | (0.719–0.813) | |||
| Moroni [25] | 12 months | 231 | No | 126 | 87 | 39 | 83.7 | 69.3 | 69 | 83.8 | 0.765 |
| Yes | 105 | 17 | 88 | (75.1–90.2) | (60.5–77.2) | (60.2–77) | (75.3–90.3) | (0.711–0.819) | |||
| Moss [26] | 12 months | 147 | No | 34 | 10 | 24 | 45.5 | 80.8 | 29.4 | 89.4 | 0.631 |
| Yes | 113 | 12 | 101 | (24.4–67.8) | (72.8–87.3) | (15.1–47.5) | (82.2–94.4) | (0.519–0.743) | |||
| Moss [27] | 12 months | 826 | No | 131 | 53 | 78 | 74.6 | 89.7 | 40.5 | 97.4 | 0.822 |
| Yes | 695 | 18 | 677 | (62.9–84.2) | (87.3–91.7) | (32–49.4) | (95.9–98.5) | (0.769–0.874) | |||
| O'Callaghan [28] | 12 months | 501 | No | 99 | 67 | 32 | 62.6 | 91.9 | 67.7 | 90 | 0.772 |
| Yes | 402 | 40 | 362 | (52.7–71.8) | (88.7–94.4) | (57.5–76.7) | (86.7–92.8) | (0.724–0.82) | |||
| Pang [29] | 12 months | 367 | No | 109 | 27 | 82 | 61.4 | 74.6 | 24.8 | 93.4 | 0.68 |
| Yes | 258 | 17 | 241 | (45.5–75.6) | (69.5–79.3) | (17–34) | (89.7–96.1) | (0.603–0.756) | |||
| Thiagarajan [33] | 12 months | 130 | No | 83 | 47 | 36 | 75.8 | 47.1 | 56.6 | 68.1 | 0.614 |
| Yes | 47 | 15 | 32 | (63.3–85.8) | (34.8–59.6) | (45.3–67.5) | (52.9–80.9) | (0.534–0.695) | |||
| Vick [34] | 12 months | 4617 | No | 796 | 374 | 422 | 58.3 | 89.4 | 47 | 93 | 0.739 |
| Yes | 3821 | 267 | 3554 | (54.4–62.2) | (88.4–90.3) | (43.5–50.5) | (92.2–93.8) | (0.719–0.758) | |||
| Fenning [30] | 6–12 months | 172 | No | 38 | 6 | 32 | 35.3 | 79.4 | 15.8 | 91.8 | 0.573 |
| Yes | 134 | 11 | 123 | (14.2–61.7) | (72.1–85.4) | (6.02–31.3) | (85.8–95.8) | (.452,– .695) | |||
| Barnes [35] | 12 months | 231 | No | 14 | 11 | 3 | 11.6 | 97.8 | 78.6 | 61.3 | 0.547 |
| Yes | 217 | 84 | 133 | (5.92–19.8) | (93.7–99.5) | (49.2–95.3) | (54.5–67.8) | (0.512–0.581) | |||
| South [32] | 6–12 months | 199 | No | 96 | 14 | 82 | 93.3 | 55.4 | 14.6 | 99 | 0.744 |
| Yes | 103 | 1 | 102 | (68.1–99.8) | (47.9–62.7) | (8.21–23.3) | (94.7–100) | (0.669–0.818) | |||
| Haga [15] | 6–12 months | 138 | No | 120 | 39 | 81 | 88.6 | 13.8 | 32.5 | 72.2 | 0.512 |
| Yes | 18 | 5 | 13 | (75.4–96.2) | (7.57–22.5) | (24.2–41.7) | (46.5–90.3) | (0.453–0.571) | |||
| Da Silva [40] | 12 months | 3896 | No | 938 | 281 | 657 | 49.6 | 80.3 | 30 | 90.4 | 0.65 |
| Yes | 2958 | 285 | 2673 | (45.5–53.8) | (78.9–81.6) | (27–33) | (89.2–91.4) | (0.628–0.671) | |||
| SQ up to 6 months | |||||||||||
| Cohen [20] | 6 months | 450 | No | 71 | 39 | 32 | 37.9 | 90.8 | 54.9 | 83.1 | 0.643 |
| Yes | 379 | 64 | 315 | (28.5–48) | (87.2–93.6) | (42.7–66.8) | (79–86.7) | (0.594–0.693) | |||
| Khan [44] | 6 months | 500 | No | 238 | 148 | 90 | 82.2 | 71.9 | 62.2 | 87.8 | 0.77 |
| Yes | 262 | 32 | 230 | (75.8–87.5) | (66.6–76.7) | (55.7–68.4) | (83.2–91.5) | (0.733–0.808) | |||
| O'Callaghan [28] | 6 months | 501 | No | 99 | 56 | 43 | 72.7 | 89.9 | 56.6 | 94.8 | 0.813 |
| Yes | 402 | 21 | 381 | (61.4–82.3) | (86.6–92.6) | (46.2–66.5) | (92.1–96.7) | (0.761–0.865) | |||
| Gopinathan [31] | 6 months | 39 | No | 19 | 5 | 14 | 83.3 | 57.6 | 26.3 | 95 | 0.705 |
| Yes | 20 | 1 | 19 | (35.9–99.6) | (39.2–74.5) | (9.15–51.2) | (75.1–99.9) | (0.52–0.889) | |||
| SQ imminent | |||||||||||
| Gibbins [41] | Admission | 6642 | No | 327 | 215 | 112 | 57 | 98.2 | 65.7 | 97.4 | 0.776 |
| Yes | 6315 | 162 | 6153 | (51.9–62.1) | (97.9–98.5) | (60.3–70.9) | (97–97.8) | (0.751–0.801) | |||
| Hamano [23] | 7 days | 2361 | No | 931 | 282 | 649 | 84.7 | 68 | 30.3 | 96.4 | 0.763 |
| Yes | 1430 | 51 | 1379 | (80.4–88.4) | (65.9–70) | (27.4–33.4) | (95.3–97.3) | (0.742–0.785) | |||
| Hamano [23] | 30 days | 2361 | No | 1851 | 1066 | 785 | 95.6 | 37 | 57.6 | 90.4 | 0.663 |
| Yes | 510 | 49 | 461 | (94.2–96.7) | (34.3–39.7) | (55.3–59.9) | (87.5–92.8) | (0.648–0.678) | |||
| Strout [42] | 30 days | 330 | No | 108 | 15 | 93 | 48.4 | 68.9 | 13.9 | 92.8 | 0.586 |
| Yes | 222 | 16 | 206 | (30.2–66.9) | (63.3–74.1) | (7.99–21.9) | (88.6–95.8) | (0.493–0.68) | |||
Sensitivity (the ability to recognise those who were dying, e.g. 15/31 for study by Strout [42])
Specificity (the ability to recognise those who were not dying, e.g. 206/299 for study by Strout [42])
PPV positive predictive value (the proportion of patients who died when the clinician predicted dying, e.g. 15/108 for study by Strout [42]), NPV negative predictive value (the proportion of patients who survived when the clinician predicted survival, e.g. 206/222 for study by Strout [42])