Fig 2. Model fit of the exponential model (Model 1b): Median (green line) and 95% CrI (green shaded area).

Observed monthly (blue dots) and annual (black dots) IgG prevalence are shown, together with their 95% CI. For the period October 2004-June 2008 (before the vertical black line), the model was fitted to the monthly IgG prevalence (blue dots). For the period July 2008-June 2016, see Fig 3A–3H. The grey shaded area represents the estimated import period.