Table 1. Input fixed parameters and parameters to estimate with their input values range.

Parameter description	Notation	Values/distribution of the prior	Source
Natural history of disease & demographics
Total population size	N	30,000	[29]
Prop. of immune animals at t0	imm_t0	Uniform [0.05,0.20]	to estimate by fitting the model to data
No. latent animals at t0	E0	5	-
No. infectious animals at t0	I0	5	-
Weekly ageing factor	δ	0.021 (1/48)/week	1month = 4 weeks in model
Survival rate for age-groups 1 to 9	α	0.9912/week	[47,48] and S1 Text
Survival rate for age-group 10	α10	0.9938/week	[47,48] and S1 Text
Climate-dependent transmission scenarios
Model 1a: Linear model
Slope	a	Uniform [1,6]	to estimate by fitting the model to data
Rs value at the minimum NDVIt value	b	Uniform [0,1]
Model 1b: Exponential model
Multiplying factor	a	Uniform [1,20]	to estimate by fitting the model to data
Scaling factor	b	Uniform [–20,–1]
Viral introduction through animal import
No. of animals seized	nseized	100/year	S2 Table
Prop. imported infectious animals	pikw	0.15/year	S2 Table
Starting date of animal import	t_imp	Uniform [Jan-Sept 07]	to estimate by fitting the model to data
Duration of import in years	P	Uniform [0.1,2]
Prop. of kwassa-kwassas seized by the maritime border authorities	pseized	Uniform [0.025, 0.20]