Table 2.
Marginal models examining the effect of social service and public health spending per individual living in poverty on teenage birth rates, adjusted for state characteristics
| B (95% CI) | ||||
| Overall sample (n=250) | Sample without AK and WY (n=240) | |||
| Unadjusted | Adjusted | Unadjusted | Adjusted | |
| Social spending rate† | ||||
| Linear effect | −0.61 (−0.66 to −0.56)** | −0.20 (−0.31 to −0.08)** | −0.65 (−0.70 to −0.61)** | −0.45 (−0.57 to −0.33)** |
| Quadratic effect | 0.01 (0.01 to 0.01)** | 0.003 (0.002 to 0.005)** | 0.01 (0.01 to 0.01)** | 0.007 (0.005 to 0.009)** |
| % Under 18 | 2.58 (1.84 to 3.33)** | 0.68 (0.25 to 1.10)** | 2.65 (1.87 to 3.42)** | 0.52 (0.11 to −0.93)* |
| % Female | −1.32 (−3.29 to 0.65) | −1.35 (−3.10 to 0.39) | −0.85 (−3.34 to 1.64) | 0.09 (−1.69 to 1.87) |
| % Non-Hispanic White | −0.23 (−0.35 to −0.12)** | −0.06 (−0.12 to 0.01) | −0.25 (−0.36 to −0.13)** | −0.12 (−0.18 to −0.05)** |
| % Non-Hispanic Black | 0.40 (0.25 to 0.54)** | −0.19 (−0.34 to −0.04)* | 0.43 (0.29 to 0.58)** | −0.19 (−0.33 to −0.06)** |
| % Hispanic | 0.24 (0.09 to 0.38)** | −0.07 (−0.17 to 0.03) | 0.25 (0.10 to 0.39)** | 0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14) |
| % Children living in single-parent home | 1.21 (0.96 to 1.46)** | 0.92 (0.67 to 1.17)** | 1.25 (1.00 to 1.50)** | 0.68 (0.43 to 0.94)** |
| % Individuals with a high school diploma | −1.98 (−2.29 to −1.67)** | −0.94 (−1.23 to −0.65)** | −2.22 (−2.52 to −1.91)** | −0.66 (−0.93 to −0.39)** |
| Unemployment rate | −0.54 (−1.26 to 0.17) | −0.38 (−0.72 to −0.03)* | −0.51 (−1.25 to 0.23) | −0.69 (−1.00 to −0.37)** |
| % Individuals living below poverty | 2.68 (2.35 to 3.02)** | 0.49 (−0.16 to 1.15) | 2.93 (2.61 to 3.25)** | −0.22 (−0.85 to 0.40) |
| % Urban | −0.16 (−0.25 to −0.06)** | −0.05 (−0.12 to 0.02) | −0.15 (−0.25 to −0.05)** | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03) |
| log(GDP/capita) | −44.08 (−50.93 to −37.23)** | 15.71 (4.24 to 27.18)** | −53.43 (−60.16 to −46.70)** | 5.83 (−4.71 to 16.36) |
| Medicaid | −0.02 (−0.03 to 0.00) | −0.02 (−0.03 to −0.01)** | −0.01 (−0.03 to 0.00) | −0.02 (−0.03 to −0.02)** |
| Region | ||||
| New England | −25.91 (−28.90 to −22.92)** | −10.24 (−13.18 to −7.31)** | −25.91 (−28.88 to −22.95)** | −6.06 (−8.95 to −3.16)** |
| Mideast | −18.79 (−21.98 to 15.61)** | −3.29 (−5.97 to −0.60)* | −18.79 (−21.95 to −15.64)** | 0.75 (−1.88 to 3.39) |
| Great Lakes | −12.33 (−15.52 to 9.15)** | 0.05 (−2.30 to 2.40) | −12.33 (−15.49 to −9.18)** | 1.95 (−0.24 to 4.14) |
| Plains | −12.96 (−15.80 to −10.12)** | 0.32 (−2.10 to 2.75) | −12.96 (−15.78 to −10.14)** | 1.75 (−0.50 to 4.00) |
| Southeast | REF | REF | REF | REF |
| Southwest | 7.65 (4.19 to 11.10)** | 6.05 (2.82 to 9.28)** | 7.65 (4.22 to 11.07)** | 3.70 (0.76 to 6.64)* |
| Rocky Mountain | −10.38 (−13.56 to −7.20)** | 2.87 (−0.32 to 6.06) | −12.11 (−15.54 to −8.69)** | −0.27 (−3.48 to 2.94) |
| Far West | −10.48 (−13.46 to −7.49)** | −1.31 (−4.41 to 1.80) | −11.47 (−14.63 to −8.32)** | 0.26 (−2.57 to 3.08) |
| Year | −2.50 (−3.47 to −1.53)** | −2.25 (−2.68 to −1.82)** | −2.49 (0.51)** | −1.24 (−1.70 to −0.78)** |
*p Value <0.05; **p value <0.01.
State characteristics, including social spending, were lagged 2 years.
†Social spending rate was centred at its mean; unit is per US$1000.
AK, Arkansas; GDP, gross domestic product; WY, Wyoming.