Table 1.

Simulated scenarios

	Better case for sugar reduction	Worse case for sugar reduction
Reformulation	Scenario 1: high-sugar drinks reduce sugar content by 30% and mid-sugar drinks by 15%	Scenario 2: mid-sugar and high-sugar drinks both reduce sugar content by 5%
Price change	Scenario 3: increase in price of high-sugar and mid-sugar drinks such that 50% of levy is passed on to consumers with a maximum 20% price rise	Scenario 4: increase in price of all packaged drinks* by the same percentage such that 50% of the tax is borne by customers
Change to SSB market share	Scenario 5: breakdown in sales of soft drinks shifts from 58% to 64% for low-sugar drinks, 6% to 12% for mid-sugar drinks, and 36% to 24% for high-sugar drinks	Scenario 6: breakdown in sales of soft drinks shifts to 55% for low-sugar drinks, 12% for mid-sugar drinks, and 33% for high-sugar drinks

Low-sugar drinks is less than 5 g of sugar per 100 mL, medium-sugar drinks is 5–8 g of sugar per 100 mL, and high-sugar drinks is more than 8 g of sugar per 100 mL. SSB=sugar-sweetened beverage.

^*Including low-sugar or zero-sugar drinks, bottled water, fruit juice, and sweetened milk drinks, and not including tea, coffee, unsweetened milk, and alcohol.