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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Jan 24.
Published in final edited form as: Nat Clim Chang. 2017 Jul 24;7(8):563–567. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3345

Fig 1. Historical data and future projections for global mean temperature.

Fig 1

Annual global mean temperature for observations17 (blue) and model simulation range (grey), anomalies first calculated for 1986-2005 and then observed warming since 1850-1900 (0.6517 – purple dashed line) has been added. Model mean (red) and 5-95% range (green) of the probability distribution from the model simulations smoothed by a 5-year running mean for 3 different future scenarios. Year when the median of the model distribution relative to 1850-1900 crosses the 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds are given in text.