Table 2. . The determinants of coalition preferences: hierarchical linear regression models.
| Dependent variable: coalition preference | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (M1) | (M2) | (M3) | (M4) | (M5) | (M6) | |
| Distance to coalition | −0.57*** (0.01) |
−0.36*** (0.01) |
−0.24*** (0.02) |
|||
| Programmatic heterogeneity | 0.05*** (0.02) |
0.12*** (0.02) |
−0.03* (0.01) |
0.08*** (0.01) |
0.05*** (0.01) |
|
| Distance largest party | −0.22*** (0.02) |
−0.05** (0.02) |
0.04* (0.02) |
|||
| Distance smaller party | −0.52*** (0.01) |
−0.34*** (0.01) |
−0.24*** (0.02) |
|||
| Parties preference similarity | 0.14*** (0.02) |
0.12*** (0.01) |
0.13*** (0.01) |
0.12*** (0.01) |
||
| Coalition includes top-ranked party | 2.27*** (0.06) |
2.02*** (0.06) |
1.88*** (0.06) |
1.86*** (0.06) |
||
| Coalition includes bottom-ranked party | −1.33*** (0.07) |
−1.15*** (0.06) |
−0.96*** (0.06) |
−0.96*** (0.06) |
||
| Leaders preference similarity | 0.06*** (0.01) |
0.05*** (0.01) |
0.06*** (0.01) |
0.06*** (0.01) |
||
| Preference leader of large party | 0.26*** (0.01) |
0.21*** (0.01) |
0.25*** (0.01) |
0.24*** (0.01) |
||
| Education (y-hat) | 0.76*** (0.15) |
0.48*** (0.14) |
0.44*** (0.13) |
0.33** (0.13) |
0.21 (0.13) |
0.23 (0.12) |
| Political knowledge (y-hat) | 0.91 (0.50) |
1.06* (0.48) |
0.26 (0.45) |
0.37 (0.43) |
0.51 (0.43) |
0.47 (0.42) |
| Extreme ideology (y-hat) | 0.10 (0.08) |
0.17* (0.07) |
0.55*** (0.07) |
0.08 (0.07) |
0.15* (0.07) |
0.02 (0.07) |
| Reference (SPÖ–Green coalition): | ||||||
| SPÖ–ÖVP | 0.26*** (0.07) |
0.12 (0.07) |
0.44*** (0.07) |
0.23*** (0.06) |
0.17** (0.06) |
0.11 (0.06) |
| ÖVP–FPÖ | −1.10*** (0.07) |
−0.94*** (0.07) |
−0.54*** (0.07) |
−0.46*** (0.07) |
−0.40*** (0.07) |
−0.40*** (0.06) |
| SPÖ–FPÖ | −1.71*** (0.09) |
−1.62*** (0.08) |
−1.06*** (0.07) |
−1.11*** (0.08) |
−1.06*** (0.08) |
−1.12*** (0.07) |
| Intercept | 5.67*** (0.07) |
5.88*** (0.07) |
0.73*** (0.15) |
2.12*** (0.16) |
1.82*** (0.16) |
2.08*** (0.16) |
| Random effects | ||||||
| Intercept variance, respondents | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| N_stacked (respondents × coalitions) | 9689 | 9689 | 9689 | 9689 | 9689 | 9689 |
| N (respondents) | 2706 | 2706 | 2706 | 2706 | 2706 | 2706 |
| Log likelihood | −23,301.8 | −23,111.4 | −22,397.2 | −22,044.9 | −22,009.7 | −21,917.0 |
| AIC | 46,625.6 | 46,246.8 | 44,822.4 | 44,121.8 | 44,053.4 | 43,869.9 |
| BIC | 46,704.6 | 46,332.9 | 44,922.9 | 44,236.6 | 44,175.4 | 43,999.2 |
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. y-hat variables are predicted values.
* p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001.