Table 1.
Predictors of mortality in stable COPD ≤12 months
| Individual prognostic variables
| |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Study | Study design | COPD diagnosis | Age, mean (SD) | Male (%) | FEV1% predicted mean (SD) | Events/total | Main exposure(s) of interest |
| Braun et al56 | Single-center longitudinal cohort study within RESTOR COPD rehabilitation program, WI, USA Case–control study within this | Unclear | Overall mean NR ≈63 |
72 | 972±84 mL, ≈36% | ?/39; 1-year follow-up | Markers of nutritional depletion: triceps skin fold, mid-arm muscle circumference, weight, estimated daily nutrient intake from 3-day dietary record, basal energy expenditure estimated from Harris–Benedict equation |
| Fan et al46 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study within RCT. 17 centers (NETT, medical arm) | Bilateral emphysema on CT, FEV1 ≤45% predicted, TLCO ≥100% predicted, RV ≥150% predicted | 66.1 (6.1) | 61.2 | 26.75 (7.2) | 45/604; 4-year follow-up | Depression: BDI – self-reported 21-item measure. Score: 0–3 for each question. There are 21 questions. If ≥10 consistent with mild-to- moderate depression Anxiety: STAI – self- reported 20-item scale. Score: 20–80. Higher score = higher anxiety |
| Man et al47 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study (Lung Health Study) | Post-BD FEV1 <90% but ≥55% predicted and FEV1/FVC <0.7 |
53 (7) | 63 | 78 (9) | 329/4,803; mean follow-up of 7.5 years | CRP (mg/L) |
| Mannino et al57 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study (Lung Health Study) | Post-BD FEV1 <90% but ≥55% predicted and FEV1/FVC <0.7 |
Mean NR | 62.6 | 55%–90% | 500/5,887; 5-year follow-up | Pre- and post- bronchodilator lung function |
| Meyer et al58 | Cross-sectional survey (National Mortality Followback Survey, USA) | ICD-9 codes: 490, 491, 492, 496 | Mean NR | 50.1 | NR | COPD: 1,279/225,400 Non-COPD: 11,524/1,894,500 | COPD, smoking status, weight, history of asthma |
| Polkey et al59 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study. 46 centers, 12 countries (ECLIPSE) |
Post-BD FEV1 <80% predicted and FEV1/FVC <0.7 | 63.3 (7.0) | 65 | 49.1 (15.7) | 94/1,847; 3-year follow-up | Δ6MWT – minimal clinically important difference (m) |
| Austin et al31 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study within EHR, ON, Canada | ICD-9 codes: 491, 492, 496 ICD-10 codes: J41, J42, J43, J44 |
66 (median) | 49 | NR | 14,124/638,926 (but 50% validation); 1-year follow-up | Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, John Hopkin’s Comorbidity Index |
| Boeck et al60 | Longitudinal observational cohort | Smoking history, spirometry | 67 (10) | 70 | 49 (17) | 54/460; 2-year follow-up | ADO, B-AE-D, updated BODE, DOSE |
| Marin et al30 | Pooled individual patient data of observational longitudinal cohort studies | Spirometry | 66.4 (9.7) | 93.3 | 53.8 (19.4) | 1,245/3,633; 10-year follow-up | ADO, BODE, BODEx, eBODE, DOSE, SAFE |
| Martinez et al61 | Multisite, longitudinal cohort study within RCT. 17 centers (NETT, medical arm) | Bilateral emphysema on CT, FEV1 ≤45% predicted, TLCO ≥100% predicted, RV ≥150% predicted | 66.1 (6.1) | 61.2 | 26.75 (7.2) | 203/610; 4.5-year follow-up | ΔmBODE |
Notes: ADO: age, dyspnea and obstruction; B-AE-D: BMI (B), severe AECOPD frequency (AE), mMRC dyspnea severity (D); BODE: BMI, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise; DOSE: dyspnea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation. ? represents unknown event number.
Abbreviations: AECOPD, acute exacerbation of COPD; BD, bronchodilator; BDI, Beck Depression Inventory; BMI, body mass index; CRP, C-reactive protein; CT, computed tomography; eBODE, exacerbations BODE; BODEx, BODEexercise capacity; EHR, electronic health records; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; FVC, forced vital capacity; ICD-9, International Classification of Disease, ninth edition; 6MWT, 6-minute walk test; mMRC, modified Medical Research Council; mBODE, modified BODE; NETT, National Emphysema Treatment Trial; NR, not reported; RCT, randomized controlled trial; RV, residual volume; SAFE, obstruction, exercise, quality of life and exacerbations; STAI, State Trait Anxiety Inventory; TLCO, gas transfer for carbon monoxide.