Table 2.
Average (range) simulated T. cruzi seroprevalence (%) for each time period using the PHICOR/CIDMA Model compared to historical Venezuelan data.
| Time Periods (Years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| 1958–1968 | 1969–1979 | 1980–1989 | 1990–1998 | |
| Historical Dataa | ||||
| Ages 0–19 years | 26.3 (18.3–29.8) | 6.0 (3.4–11.0) | 1.7 (0.9–2.6) | 1.1 (0.42–2.0) |
| Ages 20–39 years | 55.3 (46.6–64.7) | 32.3 (26.9–36.5) | 18.3 (11.5–27.6) | 10.4 (5.5–16.8) |
| Ages 40 years and older | 65.5 (62.2–68.5) | 44.4 (38.2–52.7) | 44.3 (36.2–48.9) | 37.1 (27.2–43.9) |
| Targeting the Last Time Point | ||||
| Calibrated | Calibrated | Calibrated | Generated | |
| Ages 0–19 years | 25.4 (15.9–39.5) | 10.8 (6.3–15.8) | 4.2 (2.6–6.3) | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) |
| Ages 20–39 years | 55.5 (42.3–68.8) | 32.2 (21.9–42.2) | 15.8 (10.8–21.8) | 7.8 (5.4–10.7) |
| Ages 40 years and older | 63.4 (68.0–58.3) | 51.9 (43.6–58.2) | 36.7 (30.1–43.5) | 25.0 (20.3–30.0) |
| Targeting the Last Two Time Points | ||||
| Calibrated | Calibrated | Generated | Generated | |
| Ages 0–19 years | 24.8 (14.8–39.5) | 9.8 (5.5–14.7) | 3.6 (2.1–5.5) | 1.4 (0.9–2.1) |
| Ages 20–39 years | 54.9 (41.3–68.8) | 31.0 (20.6–41.1) | 14.6 (9.8–20.4) | 7.0 (4.8–9.8) |
| Ages 40 years and older | 63.0 (57.4–68.0) | 50.7 (42.2–57.3) | 35.3 (28.7–42.1) | 23.7 (19.2–28.6) |
NOTE: average across all the simulated years and runs during each time period; range represents the minimum and maximum over the time period across all simulation runs.
a
Average for age-groups combined from data reported in Ache and Matos (Ache and Matos, 2001); range represents the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence intervals reported for the individual age-groups.