. 2017 Aug 10;12(8):e0182850. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182850

Table 3. Description of input parameters and probabilities used in the quantitative models for the assessment of the risk of ASFV/ CSFV release into the US through legal imports of swine products.

Note: the information about the inputs marked with* is listed in Table 2.

Notation	Definition	Parametrization	Source	Values
P₁	Probability of ASF^a/CSF^b infection in the countries of origin	1. Infected countries: • P₁ = 1- Exp (-t*λ) • t: time interval (one month) • λ = a/b where a: number of outbreaks in domestic swine, and b: the total number of months of the study period 2. Free countries: Pert (min, most likely, max)	1. [14] 2. Free-countries: SI model	Examples: 1.^a Poland (0.47) 1.^b China (0.61) 2.^aCanada (0, 0.001, 0.002) 2.^bCanada (0, 0, 0.005)
P_2P	Probability selecting ASF^a/CSF^b infected meat	Beta (α_1p, α_2p) • α_1p = Q_IM+1 • α_2p = N_m-(Q_IM + 1)	• Q_IM = NIP_mM_p • NI = OuToHp*	Examples: ^a. Canada 9.5310–9 ^b. Canada 5.1910–8
P_m	Probability ASF^a/CSF^b infected pig being transformed into meat		P_m = P₃·(1-P₄)·P_m·P_us	^a. ASF 9.7410–4 ^b. CSF 2.7810–3
P_sm	Probability of a pig going to slaughterhouse during a specific month	Normal (μ, σ)	[36]	Normal (0.18, 0.02)
P_us	Probability of an infected pig being undetected in slaughterhouse	Beta (α₁, α₂)	Expert Opinion (Luis Romero)[35]	Beta (1.34, 34.17)
M_p	Average kg meat obtained from pig	Normal (μ, σ)	[24]	Normal (60.9, 2.3)
N_m	Total meat production country c	Normal (μ, σ)	[24]	Normal (1941995, 34933.4)
PR_P	Probability of release of at least kg of swine products infected with ASFV/CSFV by legal imports from the country of origin (c) into a state of the US (s)		$P R_{P} = 1 - {(1 - p_{c s P})}^{n_{c s P}}$
p_csP	Probability that an ASF^a/CSF^b infected product from country c arrives to the US state s during month m	Binomial (n,p)	n = n_csP; p = P₁*P_2P	Canada to Alabama, January: ^a1.7810^{−8; b}6.3710⁻⁸
n_csP	Imports of swine products (kg) from country c to the US by state s (2008–2015)	Normal (μ, σ)	[22] [23]	Example: Imports from Canada to Alabama during January: Normal (6529.21, 1072.88)