Table 2.
Discrimination and calibration of models in validation cohort
| Men | C-statistic | Brier score | Goodness of Fit Statistic | Average predicted event rate(5-yr) | Average predicted event rate(10-yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASCVD | 0.657 | 0.055 | 8318 | 0.091 | 0.196 |
| Population Recalibrated | 0.657 | 0.053 | 2820 | 0.073 | 0.136 |
| Regression Recalibrated | 0.657 | 0.053 | 1046 | 0.056 | 0.108 |
| VARS-CVD | 0.664 | 0.052 | 17.4 | 0.056 | 0.108 |
| Women | |||||
| ASCVD | 0.726 | 0.019 | 49.0 | 0.023 | 0.064 |
| Population Recalibrated | 0.727 | 0.020 | 199 | 0.035 | 0.066 |
| Regression Recalibrated | 0.726 | 0.019 | 79.2 | 0.022 | 0.043 |
| VARS-CVD | 0.728 | 0.019 | 23.2 | 0.021 | 0.043 |
Note. C-Statistic, Brier Score, and Goodness of Fit statistic are based on the 5-year risk model. We estimated the Average Predicted event rate (10-yr) using the following: Pr(CV Event in 10 yrs | age) = Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age) + [(1 − Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age)) * Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age + 5)]