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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Sep 1.
Published in final edited form as: Med Care. 2017 Sep;55(9):864–870. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000000781

Table 2.

Discrimination and calibration of models in validation cohort

Men C-statistic Brier score Goodness of Fit Statistic Average predicted event rate(5-yr) Average predicted event rate(10-yr)
ASCVD 0.657 0.055 8318 0.091 0.196
Population Recalibrated 0.657 0.053 2820 0.073 0.136
Regression Recalibrated 0.657 0.053 1046 0.056 0.108
VARS-CVD 0.664 0.052 17.4 0.056 0.108
Women
ASCVD 0.726 0.019 49.0 0.023 0.064
Population Recalibrated 0.727 0.020 199 0.035 0.066
Regression Recalibrated 0.726 0.019 79.2 0.022 0.043
VARS-CVD 0.728 0.019 23.2 0.021 0.043

Note. C-Statistic, Brier Score, and Goodness of Fit statistic are based on the 5-year risk model. We estimated the Average Predicted event rate (10-yr) using the following: Pr(CV Event in 10 yrs | age) = Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age) + [(1 − Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age)) * Pr (CV event in 5 yrs | age + 5)]