TABLE 2.

Main and branch duct nomogram models (multivariable logistic regression models fit on the training data, excluding patients with jaundice). Odds ratios refer to the odds of having high-risk disease (vs. low-risk).

	Main duct and mixed-type (n = 271)		Branch duct (n = 380)
	Odds ratio (95% CI)	P-value	Odds ratio (95% CI)	P-value
Largest cyst sizea
> 3.0 cm	2.19 (1.20–4.05)	0.002	2.24 (1.37–3.65)	0.001
None seen	3.61 (1.65–8.53)		N/A	N/A
Solid component/mural nodule	2.44 (1.39–4.39)	0.002	2.08 (1.25–3.45)	0.005
Weight loss	1.92 (0.92–4.12)	0.086	N/A	N/A
Symptomatic	1.39 (0.73–2.64)	0.316	1.51 (0.94–2.44)	0.087
Main duct > 1.0 cm	1.13 (0.55–2.40)	0.742	N/A	N/A
Ageb	N/A	N/A	1.02 (1.00–1.05)	0.119
Gender (male)	N/A	N/A	1.14 (0.70–1.85)	0.593

^aOdds ratio compared to reference category, ≤3.0cm

^bOdds ratio per one year increase in age

CI=Confidence Interval