Table 3.

Threshold values for the index for differentiation between exacerbations

	Guidelines Based Therapy (GBT)		GBT + Omalizumab
	Estimate	95% CI	Estimate	95% CI
Area under the ROC curve (AUC)	0.76	(0.66, 0.86)	0.65	(0.56, 0.74)
Optimal Cutoff of index *	9.0		9.0
Sensitivity †	0.74	(0.52, 0.90)	0.58	(0.41, 0.74)
Specificity ‡	0.67	(0.54, 0.78)	0.63	(0.56, 0.70)
Positive predictive value §	0.44	(0.31, 0.70)	0.20	(0.16, 0.35)
Negative predictive value ||	0.88	(0.73, 0.93)	0.90	(0.82, 0.93)
False Positive	22		82
False Negative	6		15

^*The Optimal Cutoff is the exacerbation index value at which we minimize the difference between sensitivity and specificity. An exacerbation index equal or greater than 9.0 we will predict the participant as exacerbator during the fall season.

^†Sensitivity = True Positive / Total Positive

^‡Specificity = True negatives / (False positives + True negatives)

^§Positive predictive value = True positive / (False positives + True negatives)

^||Negative predictive value = True negative / (False positives + True negatives)