Table 3.

Forecast of Changes in Household Saving and Borrowing Rates with Four Lags of Changes in Consumer Confidence Indicators

		∆HSRtot		∆HSRvol		∆HBR
		${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC	${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC	${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC
1	∆I1	−0.052	106.33	−0.031	108.99	−0.04	127.94
	Past Financial Situation	(0.823)		(0.679)		(0.792)
2	∆I2	−0.042	105.9	−0.046	109.69	−0.025	127.31
	Expected Financial Situation	(0.474)		(0.562)		(0.235)
3	∆I3	0.019	103.14	0.027	106.36	0.007	125.84
	Past general economic situation	(0.344)		(0.277)		(0.591)
4	∆I4	0.027	102.72	0.028	106.3	0.008	125.81
	Expected general economic situation	(0.218)		(0.265)		(0.272)
5	∆I8	0.063*	101.02	0.082**	103.68	0.194**	116.24
	Present Major Purchases Climate	(0.078)		(0.025)		(0.018)
6	∆CCCI	0.026	102.81	0.034	106.03	0.048	123.92
	Current Consumer Confidence Index	(0.245)		(0.164)		(0.214)
7	∆I7	0.232***	91.88	0.217***	96.33	0.300***	109.76
	Expected Unemployment Level	(0.000)		(0.000)		(0.000)
8	∆I11	−0.087	107.82	−0.059	110.23	−0.067	129.13
	Future Savings Likelihood	(0.983)		(0.729)		(0.738)
9	∆FCCI	0.112***	98.55	0.117***	101.87	0.150***	118.7
	Forward Consumer Confidence Index	(0.002)		(0.000)		(0.001)

The table reports regressions according to Eq. 7. The numbers in parentheses are p values of the joint significance of four lags of change in the given customer confidence index. The number of observations (N) is 46. Hypothesis tests were conducted using a heteroskedasticity and serial correlation robust covariance matrix. HSRtot, HSRvol, HBR denote total household saving rate, voluntary household saving rate, household borrowing rate, respectively

* Statistical significance at the 10 % level; ** statistical significance at the 5 % level; *** statistical significance at the 1 % level